Demand Forecast · 国家级需求预测
Multi-factor forecast combining history, pipeline, launch plan, adoption, seasonality, and DPT/CYL mix.
Historical Base 历史
3,038 u
Pipeline 医院订单
+1,591
Launch Plan 大区铺货
+1,300
Doctor Adoption 医生采纳
+578
Final 12-Mo Forecast
7,233 u
Base National Rollout · Decomposed Monthly Forecast
Historical + dealer / hospital pipeline + regional launch plan + doctor adoption + seasonality + DPT-CYL mix
Forecast Assumption Editor 预测假设编辑器
Adjust drivers and rerun the forecast — every change recomputes downstream replenishment & safety stock.
Active hospitals 医院数28
Surgery conversion 转化率22%
Toric mix Toric占比38%
High-myopia ratio 高度近视52%
Doctor adoption 医生采纳85%
Regional launch month 大区启动2 mo
Supplier lead time Δ 交期变化0d
Seasonality index 季节性8%
Net assumption multiplier: ×1.05 applied to base scenario.
Toric vs Spherical Mix
38% Toric · 62% Spherical
Toric share trending up driven by 华东 high-volume hospitals.
High-Myopia Demand Ratio
52% of surgical pipeline
Increase 13.2mm / 13.7mm size coverage.
DPT / CYL Concentration
DPT −08.00 to −12.00 · 61%
Maintain deep safety stock for top 8 DPT/CYL combinations.
SKU-Level Forecast 单 SKU 预测
Convert each forecast line into a planning action.
| SKU Code | DPT / CYL | Region | Current Mo. | 3-Mo. | Confidence | Trend | Suggested Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICL-EVO-SPH-M600-S121 | DPT 06.00 | North China | 76 | 251 | 95% | ↑ Growing | |
| ICL-EVO-SPH-M750-S126 | DPT 07.50 | East China | 31 | 102 | 80% | ↓ Declining | |
| ICL-EVO-SPH-M900-S126 | DPT 09.00 | Northeast China | 67 | 221 | 95% | ↑ Growing | |
| ICL-EVO-SPH-M1050-S132 | DPT 10.50 | East China | 21 | 69 | 80% | → Stable | |
| ICL-EVO-SPH-M1200-S132 | DPT 12.00 | Central China | 57 | 188 | 90% | ↑ Growing | |
| ICL-EVO-SPH-M1400-S137 | DPT 14.00 | Central China | 29 | 96 | 85% | → Stable | |
| ICL-EVO-SPH-M1600-S137 | DPT 16.00 | East China | 44 | 145 | 85% | → Stable | |
| ICL-EVO-TORIC-M500-C100-S121 | DPT 05.00 / CYL +01.00 | East China | 75 | 248 | 90% | ↑ Growing | |
| ICL-EVO-TORIC-M650-C150-S126 | DPT 06.50 / CYL +01.50 | Northwest China | 77 | 254 | 90% | ↑ Growing | |
| ICL-EVO-TORIC-M800-C100-S126 | DPT 08.00 / CYL +01.00 | Northwest China | 23 | 76 | 80% | ↓ Declining | |
| ICL-EVO-TORIC-M800-C200-S132 | DPT 08.00 / CYL +02.00 | Northeast China | 26 | 86 | 80% | → Stable | |
| ICL-EVO-TORIC-M1000-C200-S132 | DPT 10.00 / CYL +02.00 | Central China | 26 | 86 | 80% | → Stable | |
| ICL-EVO-TORIC-M1000-C300-S132 | DPT 10.00 / CYL +03.00 | Southwest China | 49 | 162 | 80% | → Stable | |
| ICL-EVO-TORIC-M1200-C250-S137 | DPT 12.00 / CYL +02.50 | Southwest China | 41 | 135 | 80% | ↓ Declining | |
| ICL-EVO-TORIC-M1400-C300-S137 | DPT 14.00 / CYL +03.00 | Northeast China | 34 | 112 | 80% | → Stable | |
| ICL-EVOP-SPH-M800-S126 | DPT 08.00 | Southwest China | 12 | 40 | 85% | → Stable |